Next week, steel price volatility is limited, is expected to walk out of the high before and low after the market

This week, the price of steel affected by Vale Production, after Monday's brief increase after the re-enter a narrow range adjustment period. With the arrival of the Meiyu season, continuous heavy rainfall has hindered the construction of downstream areas in south China, east China and southwest China. 1, futures firm, spot narrow range adjustment, this week's futures closed up side shock, the trend is relatively strong. The term snail is up 22 per week and the term scroll is up 68 per week. Friday night, the black series continued to rise, rose 31 in term 31 to 3628, rose 33 in term 33 to 3583, iron ore rose 25 to 787.5, coke rose 25 to 1970, and coking coal rose 4 to 1186. Spot, after a brief rally on Monday, the transaction is not smooth, into a narrow adjustment phase. Building materials trend overall weaker than the plate, according to the steel network platform data, rebar average price this week fell 24 yuan / ton, hot coil average price this week up 12, plate average price this week up 12. Billet weekly rise 20 to 3330 yuan / ton. It is worth noting that the impact of the Meiyu season on the demand for steel has already appeared. On Friday, the reduction in the stock of the major steel varieties has narrowed considerably, and the stock of steel mills has changed from decreasing to increasing for the first time since the reduction in the stock in late March, while the increase in output is relatively limited, reflect the current steel plant to inventory certain obstacles. But on the other hand, the raw material end is strong, coke fifth round up 50 yuan / ton falling one after another, iron ore remains high, mainstream steel mills strong willingness, short-term caught in a dilemma. In the early morning of June 13, the Central Meteorological Bureau issued four early warnings, typhoon, heavy rain, strong convection, heavy fog group to disturb. According to the meteorological bureau, Typhoon "Parrot" will make landfall in Guangdong on the 14th, and the impact of wind and rain will be obvious. Meanwhile, there will still be strong rain from Guizhou to Jianghuai with strong rain. In addition, strong convective weather will lurk in the northeast and north China Heavy fog will affect our seas. It is worth noting that this year's Meiyu period in the southern region of the Yangtze River is about a week earlier than in previous years, according to Zhou Bing, chief expert of the National Climate Center, from June 12, the Yangtze Plain will enter a period of extremely strong and frequent rainfall, with the possibility of extremely heavy rainfall during the rainy season. Up to now, the Ministry of Emergency Management has learned that floods and waterlogging have affected 5.8 million people and caused 14.92 billion yuan in direct economic losses in 22 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) including Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Guizhou. Due to the impact of this year's epidemic situation, the start-up of demand in north China generally lags behind that in the south, and the regional differentiation of reservoir drawdown is expected to continue. 3, the market turnover improved over the weekend, the market confidence temporarily resumed since June, the market turnover of building materials fluctuated greatly, the highest point of this week's building materials turnover appeared on Monday, the rise of finished materials brought about by the rise of iron ore, the trading mood lifted, but then along with the price adjustment, trading volume continued to fall, Friday again in the futures closed up driven, trading volume rose to more than 250,000 tons. Market confidence has been restored, June 13 billet rose 10 to 3330 yuan / ton, steel prices short-term support. The Tangshan government recently ordered steel mills to implement strict emission reduction measures in different periods and regions, and to step up inspections of steel mills to limit production, the supervisor of each resident enterprise is required to check the production stop every two hours, and the enterprises are required to resume production in strict accordance with the document issued on the 6th strict measures. At the same time, it is reported that the impact of repair of the Brazilian berths in Australia, shipments will be reduced, leading to the recent two days of iron ore pull up, to bring a certain boost to market confidence. However, it is not enough to influence the trend of steel price, so it is necessary to observe the change of supply and demand structure and the decrease of storage. In May and June, transactions in the first-tier cities continued to increase. According to institutional data, the number of new houses sold in the first week of June in first-tier cities increased 3% month-on-month, 15.2% year-on-year, and the number of second-hand houses sold increased 98.8% year-on-year, june key city property market transactions are expected to continue the recovery, helping real estate investment growth continued to pick up. However, it is necessary to consider the impact of the rainy season on the construction progress, which will periodically affect the continuous release of demand for steel. 6. The central bank launched a $420 billion reverse repurchase this week. The market expects MLF to cut interest rates. This week, the market has 220 billion yuan reverse repurchase due, and 500 billion yuan medium-term loans facilitate the expiration of MLF. In order to maintain market liquidity stability, the Central Bank launched a total of 420 billion yuan reverse repurchase this week, equivalent to a net return of 300 billion yuan. June 19, there are 240 billion MLF due, this month is expected to have trillion-scale funds due, in addition, facing the end of the month, quarter-end Bank assessment pressure, concentrated tax payment period, add government bonds issued, the market demand for funds. The Central Bank announced on June 8th a one-off renewal of the MLF, which expires this month, around June 15th. While reassuring the markets, it also makes it less likely that they will cut their reserve requirements this month to free up liquidity, and there is some disagreement over whether to cut interest rates, focusing on the impact of the central bank's monetary policy on the markets next week. To sum up, "entering the plum blossom" this year is about a week earlier than in previous years. This week, demand in south China, east China and southwest China, affected by continued heavy rainfall, has dropped periodically, and the drop in reservoirs has slowed down significantly, it has the characteristics of "board strong and long weak" and "north strong and south weak" . But the overall macro-positive atmosphere is still, MLF continued, the fifth round of raw coke up and down, iron ore to maintain a high level of steel prices have become an important support. It is worth noting that affected by the epidemic this year, the start-up of demand in the north has lagged relatively. With the accelerated start of major projects in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the impact of the Meiyu season on the demand side will be reduced to a certain extent, and it is expected that the fluctuation of steel prices will be limited next week, is expected to come out of the high after the low market.