Inventory inflection point looming PK environmental protection to strengthen, steel market after the festival listen to WHO?

This week coincides with the Small Dragon Boat Festival holiday, only three effective trading days, the overall market change is not big, early in the week there is a small drop in the market, trading is weak, close to the holiday, futures market turn red, spot a small number of lock goods, but there is no obvious pre-festival stock market. After the festival back, the environmental protection theme again ferments, the individual area has the small exploration to rise the operation. As of June 28,2020, the Langue composite steel price index reached 143.8 points, 0.26 per cent higher than last weekend and 5.66 per cent lower than last year. The longwood price index reached 153.3 points, 0.12 per cent lower than last weekend and 7.93 per cent lower than last year The gauge rose 0.59 percent to 134.1, down 3.16 percent from a year earlier. Construction Steel, specific spot prices, monitoring data showed that as of June 28,10 major cities in China 25 mm 3-grade rebar average price of 3,720 yuan, down 8 yuan over the weekend, up 29 yuan over the same period last month. As of June 28,10 major cities in China 6.5 mm, HPB300 high-line average price of 3,965 yuan, down 4 yuan over the weekend, up 16 yuan over the same period last month. As of June 28, construction steel inventories in 29 key cities reached 8.597 million tons, an increase of 43,200 tons over the weekend, or 0.5 percent, down 7.85 percent from the same period last month and up 41.79 percent from the same period last year, the monitoring data showed. As for the price of hot rolled coil, monitoring data showed that as of June 28, the average price of 5.5 mm hot rolled coil in 10 key cities in China was 3,783 yuan, 31 yuan higher than last weekend and 151 yuan higher than the same period last month. As for stocks, as of June 28, the total stock of hot-rolled coil in 29 key cities in China reached 2.2488000 tons, down 20.900 tons from last weekend, or 0.93 percent, down 12.76 percent from the same period last month and up 7.85 percent from the same period last year. As for the price of cold-rolled Coil, as of June 28, the average price of 1.0 mm cold-rolled coil in 10 key cities in China was 4,162 yuan, 33 yuan higher than last weekend and 147 yuan higher than the same period last month. As for inventory, as of June 28, the inventory of cold-rolled coil in 24 key cities in China was 1.150 million tons, down 24,800 tons from last weekend, or 2.12 percent, down 7.99 percent from the same period last month and up 6.31 percent from the same period last year. As for the price of medium plate, as of June 28, the price of 20 mm medium plate in 10 key cities in China was 3,835 yuan, up 14 yuan from last weekend and 75 yuan from the same period last month. As for stocks, total stocks in 29 key cities reached 1,030,800 tons as of June 28, representing an increase of 0.81 million tons, or 0.79 percent, from the end of last week and an increase of 1.58 percent from the same period last month. Forecast, next week is about to enter July, the market will be how to interpret? I think the following points need to focus attention: After the return of environmental protection theme once again become the focus of attention, first, Tangshan Fengrun district, part of the independent section steel plant will be discontinued from the 27th. At present, the steel mill has been informed and implemented the measures to stop production. Under the situation of all production stops, the daily output of section steel will be affected by 61,200 tons, the affected volume will increase by 54,700 tons, and the operating rate will be greatly reduced. Taking into account, limited time only to 30 days and mainly involved in profile varieties, regardless of time or range are not large, on the overall market impact to be relatively limited. In addition, some coking and steel enterprises in Xuzhou withdrew from the market at the end of June, involving four coking enterprises and seven steel enterprises. At present, relevant enterprises have already started preparations for the suspension of production, affecting daily output of about 10,000 tons of crude steel, mainly on the rebar market has a greater impact. According to the survey, Coke enterprises currently maintain about 2 weeks of inventory, dynamic observation 30 days before the timely exit. In the short term, the environmental protection theme may become a short-term disturbance factor, adding that the demand for stock reserve before the festival has not appeared, the demand for terminal purchase after the festival or a small amount of phased volume, combined with the market closing on the first day after the festival, the capital speculation factor is missing, do Not rule out the beginning of the week steel city a small increase in the action. But look at the overall trend, even if there may be a rebound, more is delayed speculation and short-term market, late with the gradual emergence of the off-season market, the weakening of the market shock is still a probability event. From the domestic supply and demand level, one is, inventory inflection point looming. According to statistics, steel stocks in key cities across the country dropped for the first time after 14 consecutive drops, reaching 13,027,100 tons on June 26, an increase of 5,600 tons over the previous week, and an increase of 27.08 percent year-on-year. According to different varieties, the stocks of construction steel and medium and heavy plate stocks increased from a decline to an increase, the reduction rate of hot rolling and cold rolling decreased by 2.35 and 0.91 percentage points respectively. In July, the high temperature rainy season is more frequent, which has a great impact on construction enterprises. At present, the southern market is gradually declining, and Hangzhou's inventory has reached more than 100 million tons. It is difficult to form a synergy effect depending on the northern market alone. From the current cost and profit, this week (6.28) Lange Steel Network survey long process steel production cost results show that the average cost of pig iron without tax was 2,397 yuan / ton, up 62 yuan / ton compared to last week; The average tax-bearing cost of grade 3 rebar was 3,537 yuan / ton, up 77 yuan / ton from last week, while the average tax-bearing cost of hot rolled coil was 3,494 yuan / ton, up 63 yuan / ton from last week. This week costs continue to rise, building materials profit negative; plate prices can not keep up with cost increases, narrow profit space. The average profit of grade 3 rebar was-17 yuan / ton, down 91 yuan / ton from last week, and that of hot rolled coil plate was 89 yuan / ton, down 52 yuan / ton from last week. Late dynamic steel production enthusiasm will be affected. The global environment is also changing. Affected by the surge in new positive cases and hospitalizations, many states in the United States have suspended economic restart, and some Latin American countries have extended the state of emergency. The impact on the market mentality can not be ignored. Overall, the steel market is still in the observation and selection period at present. The space above the market is already very limited. If the support level of around 3500 yuan is broken down below, the rhythm of the market adjustment will be more clear. Otherwise, it will still be treated as a shock, waiting for the direction of the market to appear. Separately, the official manufacturing PMI for June next week, fed minutes at 2 a.m. on Thursday and non-farm data for June at night will focus on the financial and emotional impact on the market.